Horror can overshadow the everyday course of events as happened this weekend. We feel grief for the lone by-stander victim, compassion for the wounded and continued hope for American democracy.
One such expression of democracy will be in play this week as the Republicans convene in Milwaukee for their nominating convention. (The Democrats will meet in Chicago Aug. 19-22.) There once was more uncertainty, and excitement, to election year presidential conventions. Donald Trump, who will be at the convention and who will no doubt receive a heroic type welcome, will be the party’s nominee.
America’s method of electing a head of state has a peculiarity. The process is not really one big national election but rather 50 state elections held at the same time. Theoretically, the winner is not necessarily the one who gets the largest nationwide popular vote, but rather the one who gets the most electoral votes as parceled out among the states. It is possible, but not often likely, for a candidate to win the popular vote but to lose the election. The reason is the “electoral college.” The forefathers realized that it was not the nation that created the states, but the states (originally 13 colonies) that created the nation. That’s why they cleverly called the country the “United States.” The matter of selecting the national chief executive was the business of the states and not the country. It is a fine political line but it can make a difference.
Based on population Louisiana is allotted more electoral votes (eight) than neighbors Mississippi and Arkansas (each have six), but far less than Texas (40), Florida (30) and all the other so called swing state. (Nationwide, the winner needs 270 electoral votes.)
Using history, and polls, as a guide, Louisiana’s electoral votes will go to Trump as they did is 2020 when the Trump vs. Biden percentages were (rounded) 60% to 40%. In nearly every recent presidential election this state has voted for the GOP. The only exceptions were when the Democratic candidate was a southern governor. (The state favored Georgia’s Jimmy Carter in 1976 but joined the nation is snubbing him if favor of Ronald Reagan in 1980.)
Louisiana last supported the Democrat candidate in 1992 and 1996 in favor of Arkansas governor Bill Clinton. Since then, it has been straight Republicans.
This same trend is highly likely to continue this year especially with the turmoil among the Democrats.
One side note to the party process: There was a year when Louisiana played an amplified role in the presidential campaign. That was in 1988 when the Republican convention was held in the Superdome. (Where the floor space was so big that a partition had to be put in place so it would not look on television like the convention was empty.)
It was the only convention ever held in New Orleans but at least the city had a president-elect. George H.W. Bush (the dad) was the nominee. Sometimes, however, the host city gets lost in the spectacle. During his campaign Bush once referred to the city where he was nominated but, had to be reminded of which city it was.
Given the events of this campaign year, a safe and forgettable convention could be a blessing.
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