Historians, and those who were around at the time, still talk about the John Kennedy/Richard Nixon debates in 1960. Those were the first major televised debates, and they were compelling. Theodore White, a presidential historian, wrote a book about the campaign which included an analysis of the debate. He pointed out that the Kennedy staff had the foresight to check on the color of the backdrop. In those days most all televisions were black and white, making the set look gray. Kennedy was advised to wear a dark suit, so he stood out. Nixon, however, wore a gray suit and seemed to blend into the scenery. Also, under the hot lights his makeup began to melt creating a nervous look. Not a great appearance for someone yearning to be leader of the free world. Kennedy managed to look cool.
Nevertheless, polls revealed that while most people who watched the debates on television thought that Kennedy won; those who listened on radio said that Nixon was the winner. Hence was evidence of the emerging power of television.
After those debates it was apparent that televised forums were going to be a mainstay in all future campaigns, not just for President, but statewide and local elections too.
That has happened but the impact has seldom been the same as in the early debates. Through the years political advisors have learned how to manipulate the process. Answers from candidates are well tailored by staff to conform to whatever might be learned from the polls. The conventional wisdom has been that the key to the forums is not so much the discussion but to avoid the gaffe such as President Gerald Ford in 1976 saying that there was no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe. That was a surprise in Warsaw. Gaffes will always make the news coverage and will be what folks will be talking about the next morning. Sweaty Nixon in his gray suit was the first example of their impact.
Another lesson is to avoid the event altogether if you are the front runner because you have nothing to gain. By being away, your opponents do not have you as a target. They might complain that in the interest of democracy you should be there, and editorialists will say the same, but the truth is the public will forget about it by the next day.
That’s what happened in the Louisiana primary gubernatorial election. Front runner Jeff Landry avoided all the forums yet remained the front runner.
There is an exception though: when the campaign is down to two candidates. Kennedy and Nixon were their parties’ nominees having skirted around all the other contenders. When it was down to two, it became eyeball to eyeball. It is hard for the front runner to stay away.
In Louisiana, for the Nov.18 runoff we can have chances to closely evaluate the candidates, at least in the major races. Their answers will be scripted and they will try to avoid the gaffe, but we of the audience, could have a chance to detect a genuine flash of brilliance. We have learned since Kennedy-Nixon, that television can make a difference but not so much in the overpopulated primary elections. But when the race is down to two Watch closely. In the next month we all need to discover as much as we can about those who will govern in the various offices.
And please, no surprises for Warsaw.
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